China Coal Energy (601898): 3Q19 results are in line with expectations; there is broad room for capacity growth
The 3Q19 results were in line with our expectations. The 3Q19 results announced by the company: revenue of 94.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 22%, dividends attributable to net profit 57.
60,000 yuan, corresponding to a profit of 0.
43 yuan, an annual increase of 42%, H shares return to the net profit of 65.
7 ‰, an increase of 30% in ten years. The difference in A / H profit is mainly the adjustment of coal special funds and deferred taxes.
In the third quarter of 19, the company’s revenue was US $ 33.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 5.
5%, net profit attributable to mother 19.
USD 700 million, a year-on-year increase of 46% and a month-on-month decrease of 12%, in line with our expectations.
Comments: 1) The crops in the third quarter improved sequentially.
In the third quarter of 19, the company’s total commercial coal output was 2,660, an increase of 2 from the previous month.
The growth rate of 1-3Q commercial coal production / self-produced coal sales was 7716 growth rate in 7749 years, +38% / + 40% over the same period.
2) The price in the third quarter weakened month-on-month.
In the third quarter of 19, the company’s self-produced average price of commercial coal was 487 yuan / ton, down 3 from the previous month.
8%, of which the average price of thermal coal / coking coal decreased by 2 respectively.
6% / 6.
9%, Qinhuangdao 5500 thermal coal / Liulin 4 # coking coal 北京桑拿洗浴保健 chain ratio -3.
1%, 19Q1-3 company produced commercial coal average price of 498 yuan / ton, down 3.
3) Unit costs remained stable in the third quarter.
The unit cost of self-produced coal was 210 yuan / ton in the third quarter of 19, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.
3%, ten years +0.
5%, unit sales cost of 1-3Q19 self-produced commercial coal 212.
6 yuan / ton, previously +4.
6 yuan / ton, of which the material cost +11 yuan / ton, exceeding the engineering and mining project cost +8.
8 yuan / ton, other costs (including the cost of special fund balances) have decreased by 12 yuan / ton every year.
4) Increase in coal chemical output.
1-3Q19 Democrats / Urea / Methanol sales twice.
4% / + 32.
8% / + 20.
5) During the first three quarters, the cost will increase every year.南京桑拿网
1-3Q19 company management + R & D + financial expenses every +10.
0 million yuan, accounting for 0% of total revenue each year.
2ppt, 3Q19 cost chain +0.
Among them, 1-3Q19 financial expenses +8 each time.
US $ 500 million, mainly due to the conversion of interest capitalization into expenses after the commissioning of some projects. Development trend Yield growth is still expected.
Since the beginning of this year, the company’s coal output growth has continued to exceed market expectations.
In the short term, the company expects that the 300 / year Xiaohuigou Coal Mine will be officially put into operation in the fourth quarter, which will help optimize the company’s product structure.
Initially, we think the company’s growth points include 400 tons of anthracite / year of Libi Coal Mine and 1,500 thermal coals / year of Dahaize Coal Mine.
Earnings forecast and estimated changes in basic output, prices and other assumptions, we raised A / H shares’ 2019 earnings forecast by 6% / 5% to 75.
500 million, maintaining the 2020 profit forecast of 79.
The current split of A / H shares corresponds to August 2020.
1x / 4.
6 times price-earnings ratio.
The stock maintains an outperforming industry rating and a target price of 6 yuan, corresponding to 10.
1x 2020 P / E ratio and 24% upside.
H shares maintain an outperform industry rating and a 4 alternative target price, corresponding to 5.
9 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, 27% more upside than before.
The risk coal price fell more than expected; the project was launched, and the output growth was less than expected.