Guotai Junan: Focusing on the impact of the epidemic on various industries
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More than 50 articles on “War Epidemic” special research, focusing on the true impact of the epidemic on all walks of life | Monarch Zhouzhi Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research Warfare-Epidemic of the epidemic is touching, Guotai Junan Securities can use actual actions to assist Wuhan and fully do its jobFollow closely the impact of the epidemic on the economy and capital markets.
In the first week of the resumption of work, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute organized more than 60 conference calls and issued more than 50 in-depth reports. It comprehensively interpreted the epidemic’s impact on economic growth, industrial structure, industry structure and performance of listed companies.Impact.
At the same time, Guotai Junan combined with the mining team and the product center, summarized the views of domestic and foreign investment in the epidemic, and organized a questionnaire survey for institutional investors.
According to the questionnaire data (as of February 4), institutional investors have diverged from the current market trend. The core of the differences is whether the epidemic development path is clear and the impact of the epidemic on the economy is clear.
Based on academic research on the epidemic situation, return to the city, and questionnaire analysis, the Guotai Junan Strategy Team believes that it is an important window period in mid-to-late February.
▼ The vocabulary and number of people pointed 厦门夜网 out by investors who have “bottomed” and “no bottom” Data Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research’s impact on the overall economy, Guotai Junan’s macro team analysis has a huge impact on the tertiary industry, whichThe tracking data from Guotai Junan’s consumer team on retail, tourism, catering, cinema and other industries has also been confirmed.
There are two main reasons for this. One is that consumers are unable to go out during the holidays, which hinders consumption, and the replacement of rework affects production. The other is that falling demand drags on supply, which leads to higher supply-side inventory, reduced sales, and a worsening business environment.
In addition, focusing on the four provinces with the highest number of diagnoses in Hubei, Zhejiang, Henan, and Guangdong, Guotai Junan’s macro team found that the epidemic had a short-term impact on domestic manufacturing production or a quarter without changing the production trend.
The current policy budget, focusing on manufacturing, is still focused on providing support for epidemic prevention and control equipment and its upstream key materials, financing for parts manufacturing enterprises, subsequent supplementary finance, financial support for epidemic prevention and control, and industrial chain and supply chain risks.Facing rapid resolution, more regional characteristics will be presented.
▼ Industrial structure and population status of major epidemic provinces (2018) Source: Statistics Bureau of each province, Guotai Junan Securities Research Program, most research teams of Guotai Junan also have the same view, and believe that epidemic control will lead to gradual restoration of pessimistic expectations, and the industry is expected to recover steadily.expected.
For example, the production of chemical companies is mostly continuous production. After communicating with many chemical companies, Guotai Junan’s basic chemical team found that the epidemic has basically not caused sudden shutdowns or production limit incidents. At present, continuous production chemical companies have maintained good performance.Load operation, personnel stability and subsequent operations are expected to be better.
The Guotai Junan Building Materials team believes that demand will only be late and will not be absent. Changes in the economic structure affected by this epidemic will be in the direction of a favorable cycle. Periodically suppressed demand will increase and strike after the epidemic, and early suppression will be reduced, and subsequent demand will be released.The intensity will be stronger.
Guotai Junan Real Estate, steel, food and beverage, agriculture and transportation teams believe that the long-term industry’s long-term logic does not change, triggering the epidemic will aggravate industry differentiation, and the elimination of backward production capacity will accelerate as a result. The change in the medium and long-term perspective is beneficial to the leaderenterprise.
Guotai Junan’s home appliances and retail teams have seen the impact of SARS on the industry in 2003, and they have also seen the trend of leading companies expanding their advantages. It is expected that the outbreak of the epidemic will suppress the demand for home appliances and retail. It will mainly perform in the first quarter. The impact of new online consumptionSmaller.
▼ SARS changed the source of 2003 economic upward trend data: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research also compared SARS period, Guotai Junan’s solid income team found that under the influence of SARS incidents, in mid-April-May to mid-2003, 10Y national debt from 3.
A level of around 1% goes down to 2.
8%, and the short-term impact of the new crown is likely to be more significant.
Based on comprehensive judgment, although the possibility of phase adjustment is not ruled out, the interest rate curve will still be relatively steep, and the overall market duration is generally short. The solid income team believes that it is the best to stick to long debt in the next month.select.
▼ Source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research on industries directly related to the epidemic during the SARS outbreak period. Data sources have received more attention.
Through forward-looking predictions for the 2019 annual report and the first quarter of 2020, the Guotai Junan Biomedicine team expects that the epidemic will have a phased demand in some areas, and the overall epidemic will not change the development trajectory of the end market and the industry itself.
In response to this epidemic, self-isolation at home has become the best way to prevent complications, and telecommuting has also become a hot word. The Guotai Junan Communication team believes that the telecommuting market has maintained a compound growth of more than 20% in the past 5 years, and the penetration rate is expected to furtherImprove promotion.
▼ These remote office markets have maintained high growth in the past few years. Sources of data: China Software, Guotai Junan Securities Research. In the field of light industry manufacturing, the overall demand for tissue paper tends to be rigid, national epidemic prevention measures and health care awareness are strengthened, short-term care supplies and traditionalThe demand for household paper stocks has increased. The Guotai Junan Light Industry manufacturing team sees that the e-commerce distribution and online sales channels have alternated smoothly, and the performance of related companies has remained relatively relative.
Along the Vulcan Mountain, the rapid advancement of Lei Shenshan Hospital, the method of constructing the assembled steel structure is one of the key factors to ensure the rapid completion of the two hospitals. The Guotai Junan construction team believes that the breadth and depth of the subsequent assembly of steel structures will be significantly enhanced.Shelf (002135.
SZ), Seiko Steel Structure (600496.
SH), Honglu Steel Structure (002541.
SZ) and other steel structure processing and manufacturing leaders who have made significant contributions to the two hospitals will significantly benefit from the outbreak of steel structures in the first year, and order performance is expected to continue high growth.
In summary, by comparing the economic impact caused by the top ten infectious disease events in the world, the Guotai Junan macro team believes that the new crown disease situation will change the pace of China’s economic growth in 2020, and the macro rhythm, but will not change the overall macroeconomic development.direction.
Fiscal policy will likely target government sectors and investments in the first and second quarters that are boycotted by restaurants, hotels, tourism, entertainment, civil aviation, highway passenger transport, water passenger transport, and taxis.
Monetary policy will increase easing based on the original forecast of 2-3 interest rate cuts and 1 RRR cut, at least a targeted rate cut and RRR cut.
▼ Economic impact of the New Crown epidemic on each quarter of 2020 Data source: Guotai Junan Securities research performance review and outlook In addition to focusing on the epidemic, the research teams of Guotai Junan also resumed the fourth quarter fund positions and performance of related industries when they resumed work at the same time.Predicted industry trends for the coming year.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, the ratio of fund allocation in the retail and food and beverage sectors, both in the consumer sector, improved. In the food and beverage sector, the liquor store’s heavy storage fell, and the public goods’ heavy storage increased slightly.
The Guotai Junan Food & Beverage team believes that in the long run, the stability of low-end brand channels will face more challenges, and the industry’s integration on the brand side and channel side may accelerate.
▼ The improvement of food and beverage over-allocation in the fourth quarter improved. Source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research Retail ‘s fourth-quarter allocation is at a low level. The Guotai Junan Commerce and Retail team believes that under the epidemic, two main lines are worth paying attention to.Supermarkets, the main casual snacks segment selling online, and secondly, cosmetics, jewellery and over-selling department stores that have been affected in the short term but have improved in the medium and long term.
Environmental protection reached the lowest point in the fund’s top ten heavy storage allocations in the fourth quarter. The environmental protection sector has been losing market in 2019, but the trend of further holdings of positions has continued to highlight.
By reviewing the renewable energy subsidy policy since 2020, combining optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenario assumptions, and considering the strong volume of industry orders in 2019, the Guotai Junan Environmental Protection Team believes that no matter how the industry policy changes, waste incineration companies have the ability to price.
Compared with the above industries, the position of the communications industry in the fourth quarter further increased from the previous quarter. Based on the experience of the 4G period, the Guotai Junan Communication team believes that after the 5G license is issued, the performance of high-quality companies in the transformation industry chain will gradually be realized, and investment opportunities will exist in value stocks.
▼ In the fourth quarter, the concentration of funds allocation in the communications industry further improved. Data source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research Guotai Junan’s non-bank financial team and banking team reviewed the performance of the financial sector and conducted a outlook outlook. The stock market has risen significantly in 2019. The Guotai Junan non-bank financial team expects that self-investment and brokerage business will become the main driving force for the significant increase in the performance of brokerage firms. The investment bank and net income will increase steadily, and the ROE is expected to be 7.
0%, compared with 4 in 2018.
3% outstanding improvement.
At present, the new crown epidemic has brought a short-term impact on the stock market, and the brokerage business and brokerage business are under short-term pressure.
In the medium to long term, the epidemic has no obvious impact on the fundamentals of the industry. Counter-cyclical adjustments and policy proposals for capital market reforms have been overweighted. Registration policies and other related policies have helped land landings and the steady increase in leverage of brokers has driven the performance of brokers.
In terms of banks, the performance reports of various banks in 2019 are generally in line with market expectations.
Looking forward to 2020, the bank team expects that the industry’s revenue growth rate will continue to decline, and the provisioning effort is expected to follow up to feed back profits. It is determined that the growth rate of net profit in 2020 will be basically flat in 2019, and the profitability will be better than the market.expected.
▼ Sample banks’ fourth quarter 2019 profit growth rose month-on-month Data source: company financial report, Guotai Junan Securities Research (sample banks are the 18 banks that announced their results on January 22, 2020) New energy: subsidies for new policies and favorable new project construction February 3On the website of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration jointly released “Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Non-aqueous Renewable Energy Power Generation”.
The main core of Guotai Junan Power’s new team’s analysis of this policy adjustment is the approval of the previous compliance project guide in the directory, which is supplemented in accordance with the priority order, thereby improving the non-catalog items of the industry inventory and adding cash flow to the new construction projects.Very favorable.
Computer: To clear the mist of digital currencies On February 6, Japan, Europe, the Central Banks of the six countries and the Bank for International Settlements announced that they will hold their first digital currency discussion meeting for the first time in mid-April.
Since the design of digital currency in 2014, after nearly 6 years of in-depth research, the technology is currently close to maturity.
In the currently uncertain digital currency industry, the Guotai Junan computer team started with public information and sorted out three main investment lines. One is to try to generate new requirements for IT systems in the bank under a two-tier operation structure, and the other is the requirement for dual offline functions.It will benefit the field of financial equipment transformation. The third is that cryptography plays a major role in the issuance and circulation of digital currency. Related listed companies will benefit.
▼ Data source for creating a system update requirement in all aspects of the two-tier operation model: “China’s Multinational Digital Currency: Operational Framework and Technical Analysis”, Guotai Junan Securities Research covers for the first time and covers the shortage of public education resources. The market for tutoring continues to grow,The penetration rate of language training has been high.
Li Sichen (300010.
SZ) has become a domestic language training leader through mergers and acquisitions and divestitures. The Guotai Junan retail team believes that the introduction of education has changed significantly, and the language training industry has great growth potential. The replacement company has core advantages in terms of team, brand, curriculum system and model.The future performance growth can be expected.
Increase target price of Jerry shares (002353.
SZ) The target price increase is due to the company’s 2019 performance forecast in line with market expectations, equipment orders volume and price rose, taking into account the boom cycle of internal shale gas fracture demand, Guotai Junan high-end equipment team believes that energy security has become the main investment lineUnder the background, the company’s implementation of new products is expected to enter the North American shale gas market.
Also being catalyzed by the downstream market is Qixin Group (002301).
SZ) and Joyson Electronics (600699.
In order to fight the epidemic together, Qixin Group (002301.
SZ) launched a 500-end free service to help cloud conference offices in all walks of life and increase the number of new registered customers.
As users learn more about the cloud video conference business, the Guotai Junan Light Industry manufacturing team believes that the company’s potential customers are gradually transformed into actual customers and bring rapid development of cloud video business.
Joyson Electronics (600699.
(SH) Obvious advantages in the field of automotive electronics. Through the launch of Volkswagen MEB platform in 2020, the company’s automotive electronics business will usher in a period of explosive performance. At the same time, the company is an important supplier of Tesla in the automotive safety field such as seat belts, airbags and steering wheelsThe Guotai Junan Automobile team judges that the rapid growth of Tesla’s sales will contribute an important increase to the company.
BYD in the automotive sector (002594.
SZ), the advantage is mainly reflected in the battery. The new team of Guotai Junan Power considers the cost reduction brought by the company’s blade battery mass production and the integration of the company’s battery market after the application of new technology. It believes that the systematic layout will guarantee the company’s new energy vehicle field.Core competitiveness, vehicle sales are expected to return to the rapid growth trend in 2020.
Guotai Junan’s research teams have raised the target prices of the above four companies to maintain the “overweight” level.
Major Event Review 2019, China Railway Construction (601186.
SH) The new millennium is about 2.
01 trillion yuan, a growth rate of 26.
The Guotai Junan Construction team believes that the epidemic has a small impact on the scale of the construction industry. Taking into account the speed of supplementary special debt issuance and the advancement of bidding projects exceeding RMB 2 trillion in railway tracks, it is believed that the company’s new breakthrough is expected to continue high growth.
China Chemistry (601117.
(SH) is a domestic chemical engineering leader. Due to the outbreak affecting construction site resumption time, the market has paid more attention to the company. The construction team analyzed that the first quarter is a traditional off-season for construction. The second aspect is that the company ‘s Hubei project ‘s absolute contribution to the company ‘s net profitTherefore, it is judged that the epidemic situation has affected the company’s overall substantiality or magnitude. In 2019, the company’s orders will increase by 57%, and it is still optimistic about the company’s future high growth trend.
Maintain rating and predict the 2019 results are in line with expectations of Yao Ji Technology (002605.
SZ), two six three (002467.
SZ) and Yunnan Aluminum (000807).
SZ) and other companies, all research teams of Guotai Junan have maintained their initial target prices and grades.