Daye Special Steel (000708): Growth stocks under weak cycles

Daye Special Steel (000708): Growth stocks under weak cycles

Focus on stable special steel standards: Daye Special Steel has been focusing on special steel production since its establishment in 1993. The products can be divided into high-quality bars and high-alloy forgings according to categories, and the steel output in 2018 was 229.

The company’s production and sales, stable earnings performance, and resistance to deterioration in the ability to withstand cycles.

From 2010-2018, the steel industry first bottomed out and then rebounded. In the downward cycle, the company’s ton steel gross profit was the only difference between the lowest point and the highest point of 132 yuan. In the upward cycle, the volume and price rose and the products overlapped.It continued to rise and hit new highs, with the highest point surpassing the previous low of 227 yuan.

In addition, the company’s revenue structure is stable, and about 60% of its operating income is contributed by spring and industrial steel. In the past two years, the proportion of bearing steel revenue has also stabilized at more than 20%, of which the total revenue exceeds 80% of revenue; Group Special Steel AssetsOverall listing: Daye Special Steel plans to issue 23 yuan at 10 yuan / share.

1.8 billion shares were purchased by Taifu Investment, Jiangyin Xintai, Jiangyin Yetai, Jiangyin Yangtai, Jiangyin Qingtai and Jiangyin Xinfu holding 86 in total.

5% equity.

After the completion of the transaction, Taifu Investment will become the controlling shareholder of the listed company and promised that Xingcheng Special Steel’s audited net profit attributable to non-parents in 2019-2021 will be 33.

43 billion, 33.

2.3 billion and 33.

9.3 billion.

In 2018, Xingcheng Special Steel returned to its net profit of 39.

200 million, 39 after excluding non-operating income and expenditure.

At $ 6.7 billion, 2019 performance commitments are temporarily reduced by about 15.


Before the acquisition of the issued shares, CITIC Pacific Special Steel’s special steel assets were all concentrated in Xingcheng Special Steel, and Daye Special Steel was the only listed company of the group. After the completion of the issuance transaction, CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group will realizeOverall listing; ability to resist cycle resistance continues to increase: listed companies themselves have become a weak cycle property. Even when the steel industry is fully transformed in 2015, the company’s profit is still stable. After the acquisition of Xingcheng Special Steel, the company’s ability to withstand the cycle will beContinue to improve.

First, due to the broader product coverage, after the first successful transaction, the listed company’s special steel production capacity reached 1,300 tons, which will become the world’s largest and most comprehensive specialized special steel production company, which is deeply affected by the needs of certain industries alone.Smaller; Second, the Group’s special steel products are positioned at the mid-to-high end and have stable long-term strategic cooperation customers. These deep customer accumulations have passed at least the first five years or even periodic certifications, and the technical barriers have increased, thus being relatively stable; third, XingchengSpecial steel and its major subsidiaries have formed a strategic layout along the coast of the Yangtze River, and a large number of materials such as bulk raw materials are used by CITIC Pacific Special Steel Co., Ltd. as a procurement platform to implement unified procurement, which is conducive to bringing economies of scale and effectively reducing procurement costs.Reasonably allocate inventory to improve the overall safety margin; Qingdao Special Steel’s growth space: Qingdao Special Steel’s growth space mainly exists in increasing production and reducing leverage, so Qingdao Special Steel is a newly established steel company through environmental relocation, with a production capacity of 417 as of 2015The first phase was fully completed and put into operation in November 2014. The production capacity is only 300 seconds.存In the space of about 120 increments; the replacement of Qingdao Special Steel was terminated in 2017, and the total debt in the first half 深圳丝袜会所 of the year was 19.2 billion. After the acquisition by Xingcheng Special Steel, 3 billion debts have been repaid, but the overall debt burden is still heavy, referring to Xingcheng SpecialBy improving its own operating efficiency, Steel reduced its total debt from 2012 to 201642.

400 million US dollars, 113 tons of steel financial costs continuous measurement of 113 yuan, Qingdao Special Steel in the future to reduce leverage is huge, will directly increase its ton steel net profit level.

In addition, Qingdao Special Steel Plant is adjacent to the 40-inch ore terminal in Dongjiakou Port, which has a unique geographical advantage, and its core products, such as steel cords and bead wires, already have a high market visibility. CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group resources, QingdaoThere is room for breakthrough growth in special 西安耍耍网 steel profitability; investment advice: As a leading domestic special steel company, the company introduced products such as bearing steel, gear steel, tool steel, high-pressure boiler tube billets, heat-resistant alloys, etc.Chengtei Steel continues to advance, and the company’s advantages in the fields of bearing steel and automotive steel will be further consolidated.

If this transaction is not considered, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

07 yuan, 1.

15 yuan and 1.

25 yuan, corresponding to PE is 13.

46X, 12.

43X and 11.

48X, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

If this transaction is considered, the net profit for 2019-2020 is expected to be 4.1 billion and 50 billion, and considering its future growth, 2019-2020 PE is 15X and 12X respectively; risk warning: the risk of the suspension, suspension or cancellation of this reorganization;Target asset equity pledge risk; macroeconomic growth causes demand pressure

Sun Paper (002078): Plans to build 45 new cultural paper projects and continue to expand production of paper and pulp to consolidate core advantages

Sun Paper (002078): Plans to build 45 new cultural paper projects and continue to expand production of paper and pulp to consolidate core advantages

Incident announcement: The company plans to invest 20.

16 million local characteristic cultural paper projects with an annual output of 45 million are planned to be put into operation in Q1 of 2021, and the annual income is expected to increase by 27 after the project is put into operation.

4.5 billion, profit 3.

20,000 yuan.

  Opinion: The production capacity of cultural paper will increase by 45 indicators in 2021, and the diversification of paper types will help the company develop steadily.

The company’s cultural paper leader continues to be consolidated. At present, the company’s cultural paper production capacity is 130 to (expected to increase 45 tons in 2021), coated paper capacity is 100 inches, cardboard paper is 160 to (expected to increase by 80 tons in 2020), and the length of coated base paper is 30, 12 lengths of tissue paper, expansion of cultural paper production capacity contributed to performance gains, diversified paper types layout driven steady development.

  Paper prices have risen, pulp prices have fallen, and earnings have gradually recovered.

After the holiday, wood pulp papers have successively issued multiple rounds of price increase letters. The price increase has basically broken through before May. The trend has been stable in June. During the off-season of demand for cultural paper, paper companies still issue price increases in July to prevent the off-season prices.Falling down, there is still room for price increases in peak demand seasons in August and September.

The global economic downturn has affected the demand for wood pulp terminals, the cost of pulp has been reduced, and the company’s profit has improved significantly in the second quarter.

Overseas pulp mills stopped reducing production in July, but due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels, there is insufficient momentum for pulp price growth.

  Promote the integration of forestry pulp and paper, and continue to consolidate the advantages of raw materials.

The second phase of the Laos project has put 40 waste paper pulp into trial production and shipped it back to the 杭州桑拿网 country. 40 has been put into semi-chemical pulp, 10 has been put into wood pulp, and 70 has been machine pulp (the old solid pulp is currently converted into 30 dissolved pulp).The subsidiary has promoted the “forest-paper integration”, and the company has significant advantages in raw materials.

  The company’s EPS for 2019-2020 is expected to be 0.

84, 0.

85 yuan, corresponding to 8 PE for 2019-2020.

43, 8.

Three times, considering the increase in paper prices, the increase in pulp prices will lead to profit repairs, the expansion of papermaking business will contribute to the increase in performance, and the increase in pulping ratio will bring cost advantages. Maintain a “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: paper prices fluctuate sharply, and raw material prices fluctuate sharply.

Changchun High-tech (000661): Performance basically in line with expectations Jinsai Pharmaceutical continues high growth trend

Changchun High-tech (000661): Performance basically in line with expectations Jinsai Pharmaceutical continues high growth trend
Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 33.10%, an increase of 23% per year.4%, net profit attributable to mother 7.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 32.6%, to achieve net profit after deductions.20,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.5%. Performance was in line with expectations, and growth hormone maintained steady and high growth.In terms of quarters, 19Q2 achieved revenue and net profit attributable to mothers of 16 respectively.200 million and 3.6 ppm, which is above the high base of 18Q2 (mainly the higher base of 100g Bio and High-tech Real Estate).9% and an annual increase of 7%.In terms of business, 19H1: 1) Jinsai Pharmaceuticals achieved revenue of 21.40,000 yuan, an increase of 41 in ten years.7%, achieving a net profit of 8.20,000 yuan, an increase of 47 in ten years.7%, the performance was in line with expectations.According to grassroots research, the company’s new growth in the first half of the year increased by 35% -40%. It is expected that the growth hormone will continue to continue the rapid growth trend, resulting in the same expectations; 2) 100 grams of biological revenue4.1 ‰, 29 years ago.2%, to achieve a net profit of 95.68 million yuan, each extension of 30 years.8%, mainly due to the suspension of rabies vaccine production and the 18-year process improvement of chickenpox vaccine. The supply of chickenpox batches was insufficient.Initial recovery is normal.Considering the resumption of varicella vaccine approval and the verification of the nasal spray vaccine production site, which will be approved soon, it is expected that the growth rate will pick up in the second half of the year and it will increase significantly in 2020; 3) Revenue from high-tech land.40,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.8%, achieving a net profit of 1.2 ‰, an increase of 89 in ten years.8%; 4) Huakang Pharmaceutical achieved revenue 2.90,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.7%; 5) The service industry realized operating income of 14.2 million yuan.Overall: the four core subsidiaries in 19H1 achieved net profit attributable to their mothers7.50,000 yuan, an annual increase of 42.5%, which is higher than the reported net profit of 20.46 million yuan, which means that the growth rate of the four core subsidiaries’ net profit attributable to mothers is in line with expectations.The company’s attributable net profit growth rate was 32.Growth rate after deducting non-6% is 39.5%, mainly due to 18H1 non-recurring gains and losses of 32.8 million, and 19H1 was 8.1 million yuan. 19H1 asset disposal income decreased and was spared 19.36 million yuan. The company’s non-recurring results basically met expectations. Growth hormone performance is highly deterministic, and other blockbuster varieties have been introduced one after another.1) Growth hormone: In 18 years, the domestic growth hormone market has exceeded USD 4 billion. Considering the large applicable population and the current penetration rate, we estimate that the domestic growth hormone market is expected to exceed USD 14 billion. It is still in the outbreak period. The companyAs the leader of the domestic growth hormone industry, it will give priority to enjoying the industry growth dividend.2) Subsequent reserves of heavy varieties: The company has a large and rich product 武汉夜网论坛 echelon within the industry: a) Follitropin: After the new indication is approved, it is expected to become a heavy product of the order of one billion; b) Exclusive nasal spray formulations for influenza vaccines are reported,Anticipated approval in 19 years; c) Other products under development: Kintuximab injection: clinical phase 1 ongoing; long-acting microspheres: triptorelin + octreotide continuous clinical phase 1; shingles vaccine:The clinical phase 2 continued to advance; 13-valent and 20-valent pneumonia vaccines: in the preclinical research stage. Profit forecast and rating.Regarding asset restructuring for the time being, we expect EPS to be 8 in 2019-2021.10 yuan, 10.92 yuan and 14.72 yuan, corresponding to the current expected estimates are 42 times, 32 times and 23 times. Considering the high growth of the 杭州桑拿 company’s performance, it is estimated to be relatively cheap, and maintain a “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: the risk of major asset restructuring failure due to unpredictable factors; the risk of unfulfilled performance commitments and insufficient performance compensation; the risk of new products or incapable volume; the risk of price reductions in pharmaceutical tenders

Macalline (601828) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Growth Increases Profits Improves MoM

Macalline (601828) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Growth Increases Profits Improves MoM
The company’s 19Q1-3 revenue / attributable net profit was 118 respectively.200 million / 37.800 million, +18 a year.3% /-9.1%; single Q3 attributable net profit growth -3.9%, lower than expected, mainly due to the decrease in fair value gains. Instead of this effect, single Q3 growth rate was 11.5% was in line with expectations, and Q4 improved the impact.19Q1-3 deducted non-net profit 23.100 million, +5 a year.1%. Revenue from self-employment grew steadily, and revenue from commissioning and other businesses increased.19Q1-3 Rental and management income of self-operated shopping malls 59.400 million, ten years +10.7%, maintaining steady growth.19Q1-3 Commissioned shopping mall revenue 32.9 trillion, ten years +18.3%, Q3 growth rate is only 9.5%, the judgment is mainly affected by the changes in the previous naming consulting and project consulting income, and the annual naming consulting income with low β attributes is expected to remain stable.19Q1-3 Service income (including merchandise sales / home improvement, joint marketing / financial services / logistics, etc.) 10.900 million, previously +3.8%, the growth rate continues to decrease, accounting for 9% of the overall revenue.2%.2019Q1-3 Architectural Design and Construction Revenue 150 ppm, +89 a year.3%, Q3 growth rate of 68.6%.As of the third quarter of 2019, the company has 85/234 self-operated / managed shopping malls, a net increase of 5/6 earlier; operating areas were 7.65 million / 12.52 million square meters, an earlier net increase of 73 73 // 500,000 square meters.Maintain the highest forecast of 6/30 stores with net additions of self-operated 北京养生会所 / managed malls. The decrease in fair value gains was the main reason for the increase in net profit in Q3, which is expected to ease in Q4.19Q3 comprehensive gross profit margin 67.3%, ten years +1.6pcts; period rate growth rate +0.74 points to 41.63%, of which the sales / management (including R & D) / financial expense ratio is divided into 14.34% / 11.30% / 15.99%, ten years +0.76 / + 0.38 / -0.39pct, current control of rising momentum in sales and financial expense ratios; attributable net interest rate 26.5%, higher than -4.5pcts, the replacement is mainly due to the increase in fair value gains and decrease1.33 trillion (5% of revenue).19%), in which the gains from changes in the fair value of investment real estate decreased by -1.7.3 billion.Taking into account the 18Q4 investment real estate fair value change income is only 0.At 9 ppm, we believe that the pressure on margins is expected to ease in 19Q4. Operating cash flow was temporarily interrupted, and investment expenditure continued to be effectively controlled.19Q1-3 Operating cash flow 29.3 ‰, at least -8.3%, single Q3 growth rate -15.1%, it is judged that it is mainly affected by the collection of new project collection expectations and decentralized collection reform, but Q4 is expected to improve, and it is expected that the expanded net profit cash will still be greater than 1.19Q1-3 investment activities suffered a cash drop of 37.200 million to 67.4 trillion, net investment cash flow is also controlled at -41.0 ppm, -82 from a year ago.60,000 yuan significantly improved. Risk factors: Real estate delivery income lowers the growth of household consumption demand; self-operated stores, commissioned new construction and completion are not up to expectations; new business expansion progress exceeds expectations; changes in fair value of investment real estate. Investment suggestion: Maintain operating EPS forecast of 0-2021.79/0.93/1.07 yuan, fully diluted EPS forecast1.30/1.45/1.58 yuan.The company’s core main business is stable, and new business is expected to improve. Maintain “Buy” rating and maintain A-share target price of 15.8 yuan, Hong Kong stock price target is 8.7 Hong Kong dollars.

Wanfeng Aowei (002085): profitability of the magnesium alloy business rebound

Wanfeng Aowei (002085): profitability of the magnesium alloy business rebound

Event: The company recently released its 2018 annual report: in 2018, it achieved operating income of approximately 110.

1 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

13%, net profit of return to mother is about 9.

59 ppm, an increase of ten years6.


  Opinion: Q4 achieved revenue 29.

70,000 yuan, an annual increase of 3.

63%: Affected by the downturn in the domestic auto market in the second half of 2018, the company’s automotive wheel business achieved revenue of 21.

90,000 yuan, an increase of -12 in ten years.

6%, lower than H1 5.

1% growth rate.

The magnesium alloy business performed better, with revenue in 2018H214.

1 ‰, an increase of 15 in ten years.

5%; the performance of the motorcycle business recovered, H2 achieved revenue in 201812.

0 million yuan, an increase of 21.


Wuxi’s majestic consolidation in June 2018, and income from June to December5.

35 billion.

  The gross profit margin of magnesium alloy and motorcycle business rebounded: the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2018 was 20.

75%, a slight pick-up in 2017 (20.

17%), quarterly, 2018Q4 was the previous lowest gross profit margin, which was 19.

49%; In terms of each business, the gross profit margin of the aluminum alloy wheel business for H2 2018 was 17.

1%, lower than the level in the first half and the same period last year (21.

5%, 20.


The gross profit margin of the magnesium alloy business rebounded significantly, and it was 20 in 2018H2.

3%, significantly higher than the 12 in the same period last year.

3%, the maximum increase in production capacity and the smooth development of domestic business led to a rebound in profitability.

The gross profit margin of the motorcycle business in 2018H2 was 20.

7%, which is also significantly better than 10.


  The expense ratio remained basically stable: the company’s sales expense ratio was 1 in 2018.

95%, slightly higher than the 1 in 2017.

89%, investment in management expenses (including R & D) 7.

78%, slightly higher than the 6 in 2017.


  The domestic development of magnesium alloy business is smooth, and the future prospects are expected: in December 2015西安耍耍网, the company acquired 100% equity of Wanfeng Magnesium Redding through a fixed increase. In 2018, Wanfeng Magnesium Redine achieved revenue of 30.
1 ppm, an increase of 4 in ten years.
87%, achieving a net profit of 2.

8.3 billion, a 63-year growth of 63.

6%, the gross profit margin rebounded significantly in 2018, Wanfeng Magnesium’s domestic subsidiary Magnesium New Materials achieved approximately 3670 domestically in 2018.

0 million, constant, the company’s magnesium alloy business further increased the proportion of large tonnage products, such as instrument panel brackets, front module brackets, etc.

Based on the North American market, the company focused on the development of the domestic market, and won orders from Beijing Benz, Changan Ford and Zotye, Xiaopeng, and SAIC’s local brands, further expanding the 西安耍耍网 domestic market for magnesium alloy products. The future prospects are promising.

  Risk warning: the domestic automobile market is down, magnesium alloy business promotion is less than expected

Enjie (002812) 2019 Interim Report Comments: Supporting high growth with price premium and overseas share increase

Enjie (002812) 2019 Interim Report Comments: Supporting high growth with price premium and overseas share increase

Event company 2019H1 achieved revenue of 13.

80,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%; net profit attributable to mothers3.

9 ‰, an increase of 141% in ten years; net profit deducted from non-attributed mothers3.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 853% in ten years.

Looking at the quarter, the company achieved revenue 7 in Q2 2019.

2 ‰, an increase of 33% in ten years; net profit attributable to mothers1.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 117% in ten years; net profit of non-attributed mothers1.

400 million, an increase of 1059% in ten years.

Performance was basically in line with expectations.

Operational analysis The main driver of the company’s rapid growth is the expansion of its business: the company’s wet segmentation business in 2019H1 achieved revenue8.

300 million, accounting for 60% of total revenue, an annual increase of 80%; net profit4.

100 million US dollars, an annual increase of 84%, contributing to the net profits of listed companies.

700 million, accounting for 95% of the company’s net profit attributable to its mother.

Realization of wet decomposition 2019H1 3.

500 million Ping, an increase of about 112% over the same period; in the domestic wet segmentation market, the market reorganization accounted for 42%, and the expansion increased by about 4 pct; Shan Ping’s net profit was about 0.

96 yuan, an average of about 25% in ten years, the main logic for the company’s performance growth is to increase the price.

The period expense ratio is generally stable, and the financial expense ratio has increased significantly: The total period expense ratio of the company in 2019H1 is 13.

30%, down from the previous month.

06pct, basically stable.

Among them, the specific change in the expense ratio from the previous quarter is the sales expense ratio (+0.

30%), management expense ratio (-1.

72%), R & D expense ratio (-0.

49%) and financial expense ratio (+1.


2019H1 financial expenses are 0.

The significant increase in the expense ratio was 4 billion U.S. dollars due to the rapid expansion of business and the increase in bank expenditures leading to an increase in index expenditures.

The company’s main driving force for growth is the amount of premium and overseas, and the replacement ratio is increased: the company has a high replacement operating rate, high production efficiency and good yield, advanced auxiliary material recovery systems, has significant cost advantages, and will occupy a dominant position in price competition. In the futureThe logic of premium based on quantity still holds.

At the same time, overseas prices are significantly higher 深圳spa会所 than domestic prices, the company ‘s proportion of overseas customers has gradually increased, and replacement processing has gradually gained customer recognition, which has become a driving force for stabilizing the company ‘s replacement of single flat net profit.

Based on the above analysis, the company’s performance is still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend.

Profit adjustment and investment advice The company is expected to realize net profit profit attributable to mothers from 2019-2021.



USD 4.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60%, 25%, and 20%, maintaining the “Buy” rating unchanged.

Risks suggest that the budget reduction price exceeds expectations, and the expansion volume is less than expected; the original innovation stock business replaces expectations beyond expectations; 杭州夜网论坛 the lifting of the ban brings gradual changes; new energy vehicle growth is below expectations.

Shanghai Jahwa (600315) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Q3 Marketing Sowing Q4 Striving for Harvest

Shanghai Jahwa (600315) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Q3 Marketing “Sowing” Q4 Striving for “Harvest”

The core point of view is affected by the slower growth of Liushen,北京夜网 and Q3’s revenue and profit growth have accelerated; driven by digital marketing, Herborist Taiji Essence “Double Eleven” pre-sales have performed well, and Herborist has reshaped (creating explosive models, younger members, etc.)), The growth of Yuze and Shuangmei brands determines the company’s direction.

   Revenue and profit growth rates.

From Q1 to Q3 2019, the company achieved operating income / attributable net profit of 57.

4 billion / 5.

400 million, +5 per year.

8% / + 19.

1%; net non-attributable profit 3.

8 ‰, +2 for ten years.


In Q3 2019, the company realized operating income / attributable net profit.

100 million / 1.

0 ppm, +3 a year.

3% /-29.

6%; deduct non-net profit 1.

2 ‰, at least -11.


From Q1 to Q3 2019, the company realized net operating cash flow of 7.

200 million, +1 a year.

0%; The net inventory at the end of 2019Q3 is -8 per year.

3%, net receivables +8.


   E-commerce is still the main channel for driving growth.

From Q1 to Q3 of 2019, the e-commerce channel GMV is at least + 27% (2019H1 + 31%), the billing revenue is + 19% per year (2019H1 25% +), and the e-commerce channel revenue accounted for 23% (2019H1 22%).

2019Q1-Q3, the number of small channels of KA, mother and child, and CS increased by ten years + 60%; the two figures of department store channels decreased, and the decline in Q3 narrowed.

   Herborist’s operating margin improved.

2019Q1-Q3 operating income caliber: Herborist was basically flat for two years (H1 slightly decreased); affected by cool summers in the main sales area, fierce competition in bath products, and strong discounts on e-commerce platform promotions, the number of Liushen numbers increased, of which Q3 At least about + 2%; Qichu, Jia’an, Yuze, Pien Tsai interval + 30%?
50%; Gough is still falling during the adjustment period; the net small number in the United States and Canada has shrunk, and Q3 has stopped falling.

   The pre-sale results of Taiji Sun and Moon Essence are beautiful, and the new effect is remarkable, waiting for the turning point of Herborist.

Herborist focuses on the Taiji Sun and Moon highlights in the second half of the year. By hiring Ma Yixuan as the new spokesperson, WeChat and Weibo Xiaohongshu Douyin interactively spread the platform, increase the airport high-speed rail and department store advertising, and cooperate with Li Jiaqi ‘s “Double Eleven” pre-sale live broadcast.The pre-sale volume of Taiji Essence for five days was nearly 20,000, with a pre-sale amount of 6.62 million yuan, and more than half of the new customers were offline.

The company will continue to invest resources to focus on the promotion of Tai Chi essence. It is expected that Q4 Herborist Tai Chi essence will account for 15% of the total revenue of Herborist. It is expected that the company will replenish Tai Chi series of water, eye cream product line and upgrade creams in the next two years. Tai Chi series is expected to become the first in the next 2 years.A large product line.

   Risk factors: New product sales fall short of expectations; emerging brands diverge; M & A integration falls short of expectations.

   Investment suggestion: In view of the accelerated growth of Liushen, lower the operating income forecast for 2019-21 to 76.

200 million / 83.

7 billion / 91.

800 million (was 78.

600 million / 86.

8 billion / 95.

90,000 yuan), downgraded 2019 net profit forecast to 6.
300 million (was 6).
900 million); Maintain 2020-21 attributable net profit forecast to 6.

500 million / 7.

10,000 yuan, corresponding to 2019-21 EPS forecasts are 0.



05 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

China Shenhua (601088) Semi-annual Report Review 2019: Coal Costs and Costs Drop Non-Coal and Investment Income Increases

China Shenhua (601088) Semi-annual Report Review 2019: Coal Costs and Costs Drop Non-Coal and Investment Income Increases

Investment Highlights China Shenhua released its semi-annual report for 2019: the company achieved operating income of 1163 in the first half of 2019.

65 ppm, a decrease of 8 per year.

6%; realized net profit attributable to mother 242.

43 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

50%; realized non-net profit deduction of 226.

8.2 billion, down by 1 every year.

5%; basic income 1.

219 yuan.

Coal: Both cost and cost have decreased, and production and sales have decreased.

Affected by land acquisition and regional security rectification, the company’s commercial coal output in the first half of 2019 was 145.

4 million tons, down from 0 previously.


Affected by the decline in the amount of coal purchased, coal sales were 217.

1 million tons, down 3 previously.


The average coal formaldehyde is 420 yuan / ton, which decreases by 2 every year.


The average cost per ton of coal is 306.

9 yuan / ton, down 2 before.

8%; of which the unit production cost of self-produced coal is 110.

90 yuan / ton, down 2 before.


The gross profit margin of the coal segment remained at 28.

8%, but due to the increase in the resource tax rate in Shaanxi Province and the increase in management costs, the operating rate of return dropped to 20.


Power generation: The gross profit margin has risen sharply, and the joint venture has completed its delivery.

After the asset delivery, the company’s installed capacity dropped from 61,849 MW at the end of 2018 to 31,029 MW, so the amount of electricity generated in the first half of the year and the average price of electricity sold fell by 40.


The company’s average selling price was 330 yuan / MWh, which increased by 5 in advance.

8%; unit cost of electricity sold 258.

5 yuan / MWh, with an increase of 0 in advance.

8%, the gross profit margin of the power generation segment rose by 5.

1 up to 25.

9%, operating margin rose to 17.


Transportation: Revenue from external services of the railway segment increased significantly.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s own railway transportation turnover reached 142.

9 billion ton-kilometres, an increase of 3 in ten years.1%, of which the turnover of goods transportation to external customers increased by 8.


Benefiting from the increase in railway traffic, the revenue of the railway segment increased5.

4%, while gross margin increased by 0.

3 up to 62.

4%, the operating yield increased to 46.


In the first half of 2019, the company passed 112 of its own coal through its own ports.

8 million tons, down from 1 previously.

7%; expected turnover 44.

7淡水桑拿网 billion tons of nautical miles, a decline of 0 in ten years.


Coal chemical industry: Production and sales increase every year, and gross profit margin increases.

In the first half of 2019, the company sold polyethylene 186.

5 thousand tons, an increase of 8 per year.

7%; sales of polypropylene 170.

6 thousand tons, an increase of 6 every year.


Both the improved purity and cost decreased, and the segment gross profit margin increased by 1.

2 up to 23.

6%, operating income rose by 0.

5 up to 11.


Investment income increased significantly: The company’s investment income in the first half of 2019 was 18.

US $ 8.3 billion, mainly including: (1) 11 was confirmed on the delivery date of the joint venture’s underlying assets.

2.1 billion USD of investment income; (2) Refund confirmation of wealth management products due 4.

09 ppm; (3) Recognize the operating results of the equity joint venture company from February 1 to June 30, 2019 based on the proportion of equity1.

7.6 billion.

Investment strategy: It is expected that the company will achieve net profit attributable to its mother 447 in 2019-2021.

3.5 billion, 454.

71 ppm, 462.

3.2 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 2.

25 yuan, 2.

29 yuan, 2.

32 yuan, PE corresponding to the closing price on August 23 were 8 respectively.

3X, 8.

2X, 8.

1x, maintaining the level of “prudent overweight”.

Risk reminder: Macroeconomic fluctuations, policy forecast risks, coal mines under construction exceeding production expectations

Guotai Junan: Focusing on the impact of the epidemic on various industries

Guotai Junan: Focusing on the impact of the epidemic on various industries

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  More than 50 articles on “War Epidemic” special research, focusing on the true impact of the epidemic on all walks of life | Monarch Zhouzhi Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research Warfare-Epidemic of the epidemic is touching, Guotai Junan Securities can use actual actions to assist Wuhan and fully do its jobFollow closely the impact of the epidemic on the economy and capital markets.

  In the first week of the resumption of work, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute organized more than 60 conference calls and issued more than 50 in-depth reports. It comprehensively interpreted the epidemic’s impact on economic growth, industrial structure, industry structure and performance of listed companies.Impact.

  At the same time, Guotai Junan combined with the mining team and the product center, summarized the views of domestic and foreign investment in the epidemic, and organized a questionnaire survey for institutional investors.

  According to the questionnaire data (as of February 4), institutional investors have diverged from the current market trend. The core of the differences is whether the epidemic development path is clear and the impact of the epidemic on the economy is clear.

  Based on academic research on the epidemic situation, return to the city, and questionnaire analysis, the Guotai Junan Strategy Team believes that it is an important window period in mid-to-late February.

  ▼ The vocabulary and number of people pointed 厦门夜网 out by investors who have “bottomed” and “no bottom” Data Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research’s impact on the overall economy, Guotai Junan’s macro team analysis has a huge impact on the tertiary industry, whichThe tracking data from Guotai Junan’s consumer team on retail, tourism, catering, cinema and other industries has also been confirmed.

There are two main reasons for this. One is that consumers are unable to go out during the holidays, which hinders consumption, and the replacement of rework affects production. The other is that falling demand drags on supply, which leads to higher supply-side inventory, reduced sales, and a worsening business environment.

  In addition, focusing on the four provinces with the highest number of diagnoses in Hubei, Zhejiang, Henan, and Guangdong, Guotai Junan’s macro team found that the epidemic had a short-term impact on domestic manufacturing production or a quarter without changing the production trend.

  The current policy budget, focusing on manufacturing, is still focused on providing support for epidemic prevention and control equipment and its upstream key materials, financing for parts manufacturing enterprises, subsequent supplementary finance, financial support for epidemic prevention and control, and industrial chain and supply chain risks.Facing rapid resolution, more regional characteristics will be presented.

  ▼ Industrial structure and population status of major epidemic provinces (2018) Source: Statistics Bureau of each province, Guotai Junan Securities Research Program, most research teams of Guotai Junan also have the same view, and believe that epidemic control will lead to gradual restoration of pessimistic expectations, and the industry is expected to recover steadily.expected.

For example, the production of chemical companies is mostly continuous production. After communicating with many chemical companies, Guotai Junan’s basic chemical team found that the epidemic has basically not caused sudden shutdowns or production limit incidents. At present, continuous production chemical companies have maintained good performance.Load operation, personnel stability and subsequent operations are expected to be better.

  The Guotai Junan Building Materials team believes that demand will only be late and will not be absent. Changes in the economic structure affected by this epidemic will be in the direction of a favorable cycle. Periodically suppressed demand will increase and strike after the epidemic, and early suppression will be reduced, and subsequent demand will be released.The intensity will be stronger.

  Guotai Junan Real Estate, steel, food and beverage, agriculture and transportation teams believe that the long-term industry’s long-term logic does not change, triggering the epidemic will aggravate industry differentiation, and the elimination of backward production capacity will accelerate as a result. The change in the medium and long-term perspective is beneficial to the leaderenterprise.

  Guotai Junan’s home appliances and retail teams have seen the impact of SARS on the industry in 2003, and they have also seen the trend of leading companies expanding their advantages. It is expected that the outbreak of the epidemic will suppress the demand for home appliances and retail. It will mainly perform in the first quarter. The impact of new online consumptionSmaller.

  ▼ SARS changed the source of 2003 economic upward trend data: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research also compared SARS period, Guotai Junan’s solid income team found that under the influence of SARS incidents, in mid-April-May to mid-2003, 10Y national debt from 3.

A level of around 1% goes down to 2.

8%, and the short-term impact of the new crown is likely to be more significant.

  Based on comprehensive judgment, although the possibility of phase adjustment is not ruled out, the interest rate curve will still be relatively steep, and the overall market duration is generally short. The solid income team believes that it is the best to stick to long debt in the next

  ▼ Source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research on industries directly related to the epidemic during the SARS outbreak period. Data sources have received more attention.

  Through forward-looking predictions for the 2019 annual report and the first quarter of 2020, the Guotai Junan Biomedicine team expects that the epidemic will have a phased demand in some areas, and the overall epidemic will not change the development trajectory of the end market and the industry itself.

  In response to this epidemic, self-isolation at home has become the best way to prevent complications, and telecommuting has also become a hot word. The Guotai Junan Communication team believes that the telecommuting market has maintained a compound growth of more than 20% in the past 5 years, and the penetration rate is expected to furtherImprove promotion.

  ▼ These remote office markets have maintained high growth in the past few years. Sources of data: China Software, Guotai Junan Securities Research. In the field of light industry manufacturing, the overall demand for tissue paper tends to be rigid, national epidemic prevention measures and health care awareness are strengthened, short-term care supplies and traditionalThe demand for household paper stocks has increased. The Guotai Junan Light Industry manufacturing team sees that the e-commerce distribution and online sales channels have alternated smoothly, and the performance of related companies has remained relatively relative.

  Along the Vulcan Mountain, the rapid advancement of Lei Shenshan Hospital, the method of constructing the assembled steel structure is one of the key factors to ensure the rapid completion of the two hospitals. The Guotai Junan construction team believes that the breadth and depth of the subsequent assembly of steel structures will be significantly enhanced.Shelf (002135.

SZ), Seiko Steel Structure (600496.

SH), Honglu Steel Structure (002541.

SZ) and other steel structure processing and manufacturing leaders who have made significant contributions to the two hospitals will significantly benefit from the outbreak of steel structures in the first year, and order performance is expected to continue high growth.

  In summary, by comparing the economic impact caused by the top ten infectious disease events in the world, the Guotai Junan macro team believes that the new crown disease situation will change the pace of China’s economic growth in 2020, and the macro rhythm, but will not change the overall macroeconomic development.direction.

Fiscal policy will likely target government sectors and investments in the first and second quarters that are boycotted by restaurants, hotels, tourism, entertainment, civil aviation, highway passenger transport, water passenger transport, and taxis.

Monetary policy will increase easing based on the original forecast of 2-3 interest rate cuts and 1 RRR cut, at least a targeted rate cut and RRR cut.

  ▼ Economic impact of the New Crown epidemic on each quarter of 2020 Data source: Guotai Junan Securities research performance review and outlook In addition to focusing on the epidemic, the research teams of Guotai Junan also resumed the fourth quarter fund positions and performance of related industries when they resumed work at the same time.Predicted industry trends for the coming year.

  In the fourth quarter of 2019, the ratio of fund allocation in the retail and food and beverage sectors, both in the consumer sector, improved. In the food and beverage sector, the liquor store’s heavy storage fell, and the public goods’ heavy storage increased slightly.

The Guotai Junan Food & Beverage team believes that in the long run, the stability of low-end brand channels will face more challenges, and the industry’s integration on the brand side and channel side may accelerate.

  ▼ The improvement of food and beverage over-allocation in the fourth quarter improved. Source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research Retail ‘s fourth-quarter allocation is at a low level. The Guotai Junan Commerce and Retail team believes that under the epidemic, two main lines are worth paying attention to.Supermarkets, the main casual snacks segment selling online, and secondly, cosmetics, jewellery and over-selling department stores that have been affected in the short term but have improved in the medium and long term.

  Environmental protection reached the lowest point in the fund’s top ten heavy storage allocations in the fourth quarter. The environmental protection sector has been losing market in 2019, but the trend of further holdings of positions has continued to highlight.

  By reviewing the renewable energy subsidy policy since 2020, combining optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenario assumptions, and considering the strong volume of industry orders in 2019, the Guotai Junan Environmental Protection Team believes that no matter how the industry policy changes, waste incineration companies have the ability to price.
  Compared with the above industries, the position of the communications industry in the fourth quarter further increased from the previous quarter. Based on the experience of the 4G period, the Guotai Junan Communication team believes that after the 5G license is issued, the performance of high-quality companies in the transformation industry chain will gradually be realized, and investment opportunities will exist in value stocks.

  ▼ In the fourth quarter, the concentration of funds allocation in the communications industry further improved. Data source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research Guotai Junan’s non-bank financial team and banking team reviewed the performance of the financial sector and conducted a outlook outlook.  The stock market has risen significantly in 2019. The Guotai Junan non-bank financial team expects that self-investment and brokerage business will become the main driving force for the significant increase in the performance of brokerage firms. The investment bank and net income will increase steadily, and the ROE is expected to be 7.

0%, compared with 4 in 2018.

3% outstanding improvement.

  At present, the new crown epidemic has brought a short-term impact on the stock market, and the brokerage business and brokerage business are under short-term pressure.

In the medium to long term, the epidemic has no obvious impact on the fundamentals of the industry. Counter-cyclical adjustments and policy proposals for capital market reforms have been overweighted. Registration policies and other related policies have helped land landings and the steady increase in leverage of brokers has driven the performance of brokers.

  In terms of banks, the performance reports of various banks in 2019 are generally in line with market expectations.

Looking forward to 2020, the bank team expects that the industry’s revenue growth rate will continue to decline, and the provisioning effort is expected to follow up to feed back profits. It is determined that the growth rate of net profit in 2020 will be basically flat in 2019, and the profitability will be better than the market.expected.
  ▼ Sample banks’ fourth quarter 2019 profit growth rose month-on-month Data source: company financial report, Guotai Junan Securities Research (sample banks are the 18 banks that announced their results on January 22, 2020) New energy: subsidies for new policies and favorable new project construction February 3On the website of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration jointly released “Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Non-aqueous Renewable Energy Power Generation”.

  The main core of Guotai Junan Power’s new team’s analysis of this policy adjustment is the approval of the previous compliance project guide in the directory, which is supplemented in accordance with the priority order, thereby improving the non-catalog items of the industry inventory and adding cash flow to the new construction projects.Very favorable.

  Computer: To clear the mist of digital currencies On February 6, Japan, Europe, the Central Banks of the six countries and the Bank for International Settlements announced that they will hold their first digital currency discussion meeting for the first time in mid-April.

Since the design of digital currency in 2014, after nearly 6 years of in-depth research, the technology is currently close to maturity.

  In the currently uncertain digital currency industry, the Guotai Junan computer team started with public information and sorted out three main investment lines. One is to try to generate new requirements for IT systems in the bank under a two-tier operation structure, and the other is the requirement for dual offline functions.It will benefit the field of financial equipment transformation. The third is that cryptography plays a major role in the issuance and circulation of digital currency. Related listed companies will benefit.

  ▼ Data source for creating a system update requirement in all aspects of the two-tier operation model: “China’s Multinational Digital Currency: Operational Framework and Technical Analysis”, Guotai Junan Securities Research covers for the first time and covers the shortage of public education resources. The market for tutoring continues to grow,The penetration rate of language training has been high.

Li Sichen (300010.

SZ) has become a domestic language training leader through mergers and acquisitions and divestitures. The Guotai Junan retail team believes that the introduction of education has changed significantly, and the language training industry has great growth potential. The replacement company has core advantages in terms of team, brand, curriculum system and model.The future performance growth can be expected.

  Increase target price of Jerry shares (002353.

SZ) The target price increase is due to the company’s 2019 performance forecast in line with market expectations, equipment orders volume and price rose, taking into account the boom cycle of internal shale gas fracture demand, Guotai Junan high-end equipment team believes that energy security has become the main investment lineUnder the background, the company’s implementation of new products is expected to enter the North American shale gas market.

  Also being catalyzed by the downstream market is Qixin Group (002301).

SZ) and Joyson Electronics (600699.


  In order to fight the epidemic together, Qixin Group (002301.

SZ) launched a 500-end free service to help cloud conference offices in all walks of life and increase the number of new registered customers.

As users learn more about the cloud video conference business, the Guotai Junan Light Industry manufacturing team believes that the company’s potential customers are gradually transformed into actual customers and bring rapid development of cloud video business.

  Joyson Electronics (600699.

(SH) Obvious advantages in the field of automotive electronics. Through the launch of Volkswagen MEB platform in 2020, the company’s automotive electronics business will usher in a period of explosive performance. At the same time, the company is an important supplier of Tesla in the automotive safety field such as seat belts, airbags and steering wheelsThe Guotai Junan Automobile team judges that the rapid growth of Tesla’s sales will contribute an important increase to the company.

  BYD in the automotive sector (002594.

SZ), the advantage is mainly reflected in the battery. The new team of Guotai Junan Power considers the cost reduction brought by the company’s blade battery mass production and the integration of the company’s battery market after the application of new technology. It believes that the systematic layout will guarantee the company’s new energy vehicle field.Core competitiveness, vehicle sales are expected to return to the rapid growth trend in 2020.

  Guotai Junan’s research teams have raised the target prices of the above four companies to maintain the “overweight” level.

  Major Event Review 2019, China Railway Construction (601186.

SH) The new millennium is about 2.

01 trillion yuan, a growth rate of 26.


The Guotai Junan Construction team believes that the epidemic has a small impact on the scale of the construction industry. Taking into account the speed of supplementary special debt issuance and the advancement of bidding projects exceeding RMB 2 trillion in railway tracks, it is believed that the company’s new breakthrough is expected to continue high growth.

  China Chemistry (601117.

(SH) is a domestic chemical engineering leader. Due to the outbreak affecting construction site resumption time, the market has paid more attention to the company. The construction team analyzed that the first quarter is a traditional off-season for construction. The second aspect is that the company ‘s Hubei project ‘s absolute contribution to the company ‘s net profitTherefore, it is judged that the epidemic situation has affected the company’s overall substantiality or magnitude. In 2019, the company’s orders will increase by 57%, and it is still optimistic about the company’s future high growth trend.

  Maintain rating and predict the 2019 results are in line with expectations of Yao Ji Technology (002605.

SZ), two six three (002467.

SZ) and Yunnan Aluminum (000807).

SZ) and other companies, all research teams of Guotai Junan have maintained their initial target prices and grades.

Zhongju High-tech (600872) Interim Review: Condiment business meets expectations Level 1 optimization and rejuvenation

Zhongju High-tech (600872) Interim Review: Condiment business meets expectations Level 1 optimization and rejuvenation

The revenue was in line with expectations. The company that maintains the “recommended” rating released its 2019 semi-annual report and achieved operating income23.

92 ppm / + 10.

03%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

6.6 billion / + 7.

99%; EPS is 0.


Q2 achieved operating income11.

61 ppm / + 13.

78%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

$ 7.7 billion / + 4.

43%, we expect a net profit of 7 in 2019/2020.

25 ppm / 9.

03 ppm, corresponding to 46X / 37X PE, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Small categories grew rapidly, channels accelerated development, condiments continued the growth trend of the first quarter, and the operating income of delicious fresh products22.

600 million / + 15.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

6 ‰ / + 20%, the income in the second quarter alone is 11 ‰ / + 15.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

9 ppm / + 7.


The traditional category maintained steady growth, and the operating income of soy sauce, chicken powder, and edible oil was realized separately.

700 million / + 10.

4%, 2.

700 million / + 19.

3%, 200 million US dollars / + 27%; rapid sales of new categories, oyster sauce, cooking wine, bean curd operating income increased by 61%, 66%, 27%.

In terms of channel construction, the channel planning strategy of “steadily developing the southeast coast, focusing on upgrading the northeast and northeast, accelerating the development of the southwestern region, and gradually developing the northwestern market” was continued to increase the number of dealers by 111 and the total number of dealers reaching 975.Subdivision and optimization; 15 blank prefecture-level cities were developed, and 275 prefecture-level cities nationwide have been developed, with a development rate of 81%.

The gross profit margin dropped slightly, and the expense ratio was stable in 2019H1.

82% /-0.

13pct, condiment gross margin is 39.

61%. The prices of the main raw materials such as soybeans, salt, sugar, and packaging materials remained stable, while the prices of glutamic acid and packaging materials were at a relatively high level.

The sales expense ratio in the first half of the year was 10.

28% /-0.

30pct, overhead cost rate 9.

0% / + 0.

43pct, mainly to increase the budget investment of managers.

The performance appraisal and salary incentive system has been implemented, and the escort company has revised the 2019 version of the “performance appraisal and salary incentive system” for the “Double Hundred” target. In the evaluation indicators, the operating income, 苏州夜网论坛 net profit attributed to the mother and the ROE weight are 2: 6:2 was adjusted to 4: 4: 2, and the weight of revenue indicators increased, which was in line with the company’s five-year “double hundred” goal.

From the bonus distribution to the middle-level business backbone; the excess rewards are based on the completion of the indicators, and the completion rate reaches 1.

1x and 1.In the case of 2 times, 15% and 25% of the excess are added to the bonus package, which fully stimulates the enthusiasm and creativity of employees.

Risk Warning: The price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the expansion of channels is less than expected